THE Treasury, Bank of England and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are among the self-appointed anti-Brexit so-called economics experts who keep getting their forecasts WRONG.
Establishment institutions, as well as global investment banks, issued united and terrifying warnings of economic disaster if Britain opted out of the European Union (EU), in an effort to sway the public into voting to Remain.
Yet figures released yesterday showed booming Britain's economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months after the vote, providing the crowning piece of unarguable evidence that the vote to leave did not negatively impact the UK.
The Treasury, under the leadership of George Osborne, had predicted Britain would fall into immediate recession after a Brexit vote, with GDP coming in at -0.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2016.
But yesterday the Treasury admitted the claim had been based on GUESSWORK which turned out to be wholly ill-informed.
Despite the rank amateurism and inaccuracy of almost all forecasts since Brexit a negative report on Britain’s economic competence – and since Brexit they have almost ALL been negative – risks serious harm to the welfare of the nation.
The IMF said Brexit could reduce the UK economy by as much as 9.5 per cent, and added that Britain could expect "sizeable" long-term losses in income.
Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde had the audacity to say she could not see ANYTHING positive to come from leaving the EU and an exit could have "particularly severe" consequences.
Ms Lagarde added that interest rates could also rise sharply in the event of leaving Europe, which would negatively impact on households with high debts.
The Bank of England under Remainer Mark Carney's leadership also warned interest rates could rise, and that a recession couldn't be ruled out.
In fact, the Bank cut interest rates following the Brexit vote.
The Bank of England today refused to comment on the disparity between its scathing forecasts and booming Britain’s economic reality when contacted by Express.co.uk.
The IMF has also been contacted for comment but has also failed to respond.
Chancellor Philip Hammond yesterday said: "Many of the forecasters made assumptions that are proved not to be the case.
"For example in the case of the Treasury forecasts it assumes that the Article 50 notice was served immediately following the referendum.
"Therefore we'd already be into the negotiation process and it assumed that there would be no monetary policy response by the bank of Bank of England, and of course there has been a very significant monetary policy response.”
Following the vote, a number of establishment organisations have made u-turns over short-term predictions.
Banks including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are among the firms that have conceded the Brexit vote will not trigger a UK recession.
Banks including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are among the firms that have conceded the Brexit vote will not trigger a UK recession.
After previously warning the UK's economy would grow by just 0.1 per cent in 2016 after a vote to Leave, Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has re-forecast growth at 1.8 per cent.
However, many of the establishment institutions are still forecasting a long-term hit to Britain's economy as it exits the EU.
Ryan Bourne, member of Economists for Brexit and head of public policy at the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA), said: “Ahead of the referendum, the Treasury forecast an economic contraction in Q3, the IMF forecast a crash in equity markets and the Treasury warned of a technical recession.
"These were just a selection of wildly inaccurate short-term forecasts based on the poorly-evidenced effects of supposed policy ‘uncertainty’ and expected lower growth potential outside the EU.
"Similar analysis now drives the prediction of long-term economic suffering outside of the Single Market.
“With referendum campaigning complete and evidence these forecasts were utterly inaccurate, now is the time for humility from these institutions."
However, many of the establishment institutions are still forecasting a long-term hit to Britain's economy as it exits the EU.
Ryan Bourne, member of Economists for Brexit and head of public policy at the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA), said: “Ahead of the referendum, the Treasury forecast an economic contraction in Q3, the IMF forecast a crash in equity markets and the Treasury warned of a technical recession.
"These were just a selection of wildly inaccurate short-term forecasts based on the poorly-evidenced effects of supposed policy ‘uncertainty’ and expected lower growth potential outside the EU.
"Similar analysis now drives the prediction of long-term economic suffering outside of the Single Market.
“With referendum campaigning complete and evidence these forecasts were utterly inaccurate, now is the time for humility from these institutions."
Ex-Chancellor George Osborne and the Treasury saidthe UK economy would suffer after Brexit
Mr Bourne added: "The Treasury forecast came largely as a consequence of dodgy assumptions about Britain’s future policy framework outside the EU.
"The new Chancellor Philip Hammond now has the opportunity to disavow this flawed modelling and to reassess how Britain might fare outside of the Single Market under realistic assumptions on trade and regulation.”
"The new Chancellor Philip Hammond now has the opportunity to disavow this flawed modelling and to reassess how Britain might fare outside of the Single Market under realistic assumptions on trade and regulation.”
Professor Graeme Leach, chief executive of Macronomics, added: "All significant indicators show the economy having a strong head of steam going into the vote and a positive recovery in the weeks since, with GDP figures in particular demonstrating that uncertainty has not undermined economic performance.
"It is therefore troubling to see the Treasury wedded to a set of forecasts which see the UK economy shrinking in relative terms over the long-term, based on entirely misleading assumptions.
“Put simply, we need a broader and better understanding of what free trade outside the EU actually means for the UK economy, to better inform Government policy.”
"It is therefore troubling to see the Treasury wedded to a set of forecasts which see the UK economy shrinking in relative terms over the long-term, based on entirely misleading assumptions.
“Put simply, we need a broader and better understanding of what free trade outside the EU actually means for the UK economy, to better inform Government policy.”