Astronauts
Chen Dong, left, and Jing Haipeng at a ceremony prior to the launch of
the Shenzhou 11. (Photographer: Li Jin/VCG via Getty Images)
The launch of the Shenzhou 11 spacecraft in western China
last month marked another great leap forward for the nation’s space
program and its ambition to send manned missions to the moon and,
eventually, Mars. Yet more than national prestige is at stake: China is
counting on its space program to pay huge economic dividends.
China is NASA’s
biggest rival in space exploration with plans to land “taikonauts” on
the moon by 2036 and Mars thereafter. Along the way, President Xi
Jinping hopes the space missions will spawn a wave of Chinese innovation
in robotics, aviation and artificial intelligence, among other leading
21st-century technologies.
China’s space program is generally shrouded in secrecy, yet Xi’s
government is now reviewing a proposal by top researchers to triple
investments into scientific missions, according to Wu Ji,
director-general of the National Space Science Center. The hope is that
advancements made while building new telescopes, monitoring Earth’s
water cycles and improving satellite navigation will revive state-owned
enterprises and inspire the startup of private ones.
China’s ongoing five-year plan strives to “make original
achievements” in fundamental sciences and “lead the development of
cutting-edge space technology.” A central economic strategy calls for 70
percent of key technology components—such as semiconductors and
software—to be produced domestically by 2025.
To get there, Wu and dozens of researchers asked the central
government to boost investment into space science from the 4.7 billion
yuan ($695 million) spent in 2011-2015 to at least 15.6 billion yuan in
2026-2030.
The precise extent of China’s space spending isn’t known, but what’s
clear is that some U.S.-based analysts are concerned that China is
hitting the accelerator as NASA hits the brakes. NASA ended the space
shuttle, abandoned plans to return to the moon and is only committed to
the International Space Station until 2024.
China’s stated goals to build its own station, land on the dark side
of the moon and put a rover on Mars—all by 2022—prompted U.S.
congressmen to ask: “Are We Losing the Space Race to China?” The nation started manned missions in 2003 and launched two more taikonauts in Shenzhou 11.
“China’s more deliberate and comprehensive approach will open up
opportunities for Beijing to derive important economic, political and
diplomatic benefits from its space program,” Dennis Shea, chairman of
the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, told the committee Sept. 27.
Even though NASA already landed on the moon, giving China the chance
to accomplish that while the U.S. focuses on manned flight to Mars in
the 2030s may backfire, said James Lewis, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“China uses space to gain political advantage,” Lewis said. “While
there are clearly activities related to science and research, the
primary purpose for China is to demonstrate power.”
“China has leapfrogged other countries in terms of technology
development over the past 15 years,” said Vincent Chan, a Hong
Kong-based managing director of Credit Suisse. “The potentially
disruptive implications of China’s innovative drive should not be
underestimated.”
The nation also is developing the homegrown Beidou navigation network
as an alternative to the U.S.-run Global Positioning System. China
wants a constellation of 35 Beidou satellites covering the world by
2020, according to the nonprofit Colorado-based Space Foundation.
Beidou provides improved security against interference and
interception for military users, and guides about 40,000 fishing boats
in the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes and
the vortex of international territorial disputes.
More than 30 countries use the Beidou system, according to the government.
“We are at the beginning,” Wu said. “But this is a great cause, and
nothing should stop China from becoming a power in the space industry.”
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