After nearly a century of being relegated to a smaller
regional power acting alongside the Israeli-Saudi nexus, Turkey’s new
leadership stands prepared to significantly increase its political power
and prestige. Taking advantage of various conflicts around their
borders, Turkey has embarked on a bit to expand their influence not just
in the Middle East, but also on the borders of an increasingly volatile
European Union. These actions, along with consolidation domestically
and an increased focus on militarization mean that Turkey’s profile
stands a good chance of rising over the next decade. I. Expansion In The Middle East
Turkey has taken an active role in Syrian territories which were
historically part of the Ottoman Eyalet (Province) of Şam by deploying
military assets which they claim are part of their efforts to help bring
an end to the Syrian Civil War. However, Turkey’s intervention came
only after they used their control of Syria’s northern border to
fracture rebel groups who might have opposed them. Wikileaks’ Berat’s Box
release has revealed that organizations tied to government officials
such as Powertrans were directly implicated in the facilitation of ISIS
oil imports. Leaked German government documents published by public
broadcaster Arbeitsgemeinschaft der öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunkanstalten der Bundesrepublik Deutschland
(ARD) also show that Turkey supported a number of other jihadist groups
in Syria in addition to Palestine’s Hamas and Egypt’s Muslim
Brotherhood. This strategy of supporting various jihadist groups in
Syria created a rebel coalition that was prone to infighting, unable to
effectively mount concerted resistance to ISIS and created a need for
Turkish assistance which began when troops entered Syria in August 2016. Russian new source Sputnik reported
that since intervening, Turkey had established military bases in
the Aktarin district north of Aleppo and the city of al-Bab which was
previously held by ISIS.
With a firm presence in northern Syria, Turkey has now begun a
diplomatic dance of name calling and accusations with the United States
over disagreements about support for Kurdish YPG rebel groups operating
in Syria. Turkey opposes arming the Kurdish YPG due to their close
relationship with the Turkey Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (PKK), a
Turkish communist political party and rebel group which maintains
military assets in northern Iraq. On July 19th, 2017, the Turkish
state-run Anadolu Agency leaked
the precise locations of a number of U.S. military bases in Syria in a
move that understandably caused considerable anger to American
officials. The revelation was likely in response to Turkish anger at
President Donald Trump’s decision in May 2017 to arm the YPG.
Erdogan has recently threatened to attack U.S. troop positions should
they stand in the way of future operations against the YPG according to Turkish media.
Map published by Turkey’s Anadolu Agency showing locations of U.S. bases in northern Syria
Turkey has also sought out diplomatic confrontation with regional
power Saudi Arabia in the Kingdom’s conflict with Qatar where it has deployed troops to the Gulf state. Disobedient Media
has previously reported that the move is part of efforts by Turkey and
Iran to position themselves as political opponents and replacements to
Saudi Arabia, which has for many years acted as the Middle East’s
dominant regional player alongside Israel in a power sharing dynamic
referred to as the Israeli-Saudi
nexus. With Saudi Arabia likely to experience an internal conflict
between factions of the royal family, Turkey hopes to be able to
marginalize the Kingdom and promote itself as a regional alternative. II. Expansion In East/West Europe
Finally, Turkey has also sought confrontation with the European
Union, using Greece as a flash point. Traditionally a territory of the
Ottoman Empire, Greece has historically had a hostile relation with its
Aegean neighbor. But relations have taken a particularly sour turn over
the past year. In January 2017, Al Jazeera
reported that Turkey had threatened to end its migration deal with
Greece after a Greek court refused to return eight soldiers who had
sought asylum in the aftermath of the failed 2016 coup d’état. The
escalation came after a year of competition in the fishing industry,
where Greek fisherman claimed the Turkish government had created
conditions which unfairly benefitted Turkish fishing enterprises.
Tensions reached a new height after reports in
July 2017 that the Greek Coast Guard had fired on a Turkish freighter
in the Aegean Sea which authorities claimed was carrying narcotics.
Turkey has also threatened retaliation
against Greece for engaging in oil exploration in Cyprus, which has
been partitioned between the two countries since a military invasion in
1974.
Arab American news source Al-Monitor
has noted that the escalation in the Aegean is less about historical
differences than it is Turkey’s relationship with the European Union.
This confrontation has lead to a breakdown in military cooperation
between Turkey and European powers such as Germany. Unchecked, these
disagreements could lead to a devolution in cooperation ending with
Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO and and end to it’s bid to join the EU.
While Greece represents a major financial liability to the European
Union, it is an excellent opportunity for Turkey to make a power play
and distract European states from other issues. Disobedient Media
has previously outlined the EU’s campaign to consolidate control over
Greece by imposing harsh austerity measures after playing political and
financial allies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Despite the
political control it now enjoys, Europe is stuck attempting to run a
country which consistently requires financial support and struggles to
maintain adequate military deterrents in the face of Turkish military spending.
The focus on Greece distracts from other problems such as alarming
threats by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to weaponize Turkish
and Middle Eastern migrant populations against Europe. In March 2017,
Erdoğan told European officials they would “pay the price” after the Netherlands and provinces in Germany blocked Turkish officials from engaging in political campaigns among Turkish migrants living abroad. The New York Times reported that Erdoğan alarmingly exhorted Turks to ethnically replace Europeans by outbreeding them. Sources estimate that there are between 5 to 10 million Turks living throughout the European Union, primarily in Germany. Politico has accused Erdoğan of using the European migrant crisis to further his own political agenda. In 2016, Erdoğan threatened
to unleash millions of refugees and migrants into Europe after
politicians moved to suspend talks to include Turkey in the European
Union. Voice of America
has also noted that Turkey is currently engaged in a global drive to
build 18 mosques internationally in locations such as Cuba, the United
States, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, the Philippines, Palestine, the United
Kingdom and Albania. In 1998, Erdoğan was jailed for four months after
penning a poem where he referred to mosques as “our barracks.” III. Domestic Consolidation Of Power And Militarization
After weathering the July 2016 coup
against the Turkish government, Erdoğan used the incident to not only
purge political opponents, but to sell Turks propaganda promising a new
geopolitical vision. In October, just a few months after the coup, Foreign Policy noted
that maps displayed on Turkish TV showed the country with its borders
extended into the Aegean as well as into Syria and Northern Iraq. The
message has resonated with Turkish citizens, who in April 2017 voted in a
sweeping constitutional referendum which
strengthened the office of the president, weakened Turkey’s legislature
and allowed for more political appointees in the judiciary branch.
Map shown on Turkish TV with borders slightly expanded
Pro-peace organization PAX has
detailed Turkey’s place as the sixth largest arms importer worldwide,
seeking to be self sufficient by 2023. The Turkish military has evolved
over the years as well, upgrading its existing stockpiles of equipment
and integrating new types of platforms such as drones. Erdoğan also
pledged in early July 2017 to commit towards the construction of Turkish aircraft carriers starting in 2021. Figures close to the Turkish leader have urged even more extreme defense measures. On March 16, 2017, The Express reported that a cleric close to Erdoğan’s AK Party urged Turkey to develop its own nuclear weapons. Both mainstream media sources and public figures
have expressed concerns that other Middle Eastern states such as Saudi
Arabia and Qatar may have already developed their own weapons of mass
destruction.
With the dramatic shifts in the geopolitical balance of the Middle
East and the European Union facing a number of issues stemming from
unrest and terrorism stemming from the migrant crisis, ongoing conflict
with Russia and growing disagreements with Eastern Europe, Turkey is
well positioned to increase its stature in the region. Should Erdogan
avoid further internal destabilization in the form of coups and unrest
from neighboring countries, it is more than likely that Turkey will once
again experience a glimmer of the prestige it once enjoyed under the
Ottoman Empire. Source
