EU is a hegemonistic and increasingly militarised political behemoth controlled by Germany
With a few distinguished exceptions, “official” Ireland
has bought into the “spin”’. It has made the European Union the
custodian of our national interests. It has ceded its responsibility for
negotiations on our future relationship with our nearest neighbour and
largest single-country trading partner. This makes no sense. The risks
of trading the approval of “Europe” for the long-term interests of the
country are enormous.
Behind the charade of a “unified stance” on Brexit is a deeply
divided EU with competing national agendas which have been whipped into a
facile unanimity. The pressure not to break ranks is huge. In his
acclaimed book Adults in the Room: My Battle With Europe’s Deep Establishment, former Greek minister for finance Yanis Varoufakis documents the devastating reality of such pressures.
Because what the UK is exiting is not Europe, but what Europe has become. Tragically, it is not the Europe of Schumann and Monnet or even Jacques Delors.
Brexit means Ireland, which shares a common stance on key issues with the UK, is left marginalised, peripheral and dependant
It is a hegemonistic and increasingly militarised political behemoth, controlled by Germany
and, to a lesser extent, by a Franco-German identity of interests.
Europe is bound together by an oppressive dependency on the centre.
Political scientists know that even the largest of other countries play
in the reserves.
At its heart is a flawed monetary union, skewed towards surplus
countries and a yawning “democratic deficit”. Brexit should have been
the catalyst for reform. Instead, freed for the moment of the threat of
“populism” generated by its own policies, the establishment has pulled
down the shutters on reform. It is now impelling members towards full
political union and, beyond that, further supra-national enlargement.
Brexit means Ireland, which shares a common stance on key issues with
the UK, is left marginalised, peripheral and dependant. That reality
bears reflecting upon.
The core responsibility of any sovereign nation is to protect the
national interest. Down the road, who will uphold and advocate Ireland’s
national interests? Whatever the nature of the post-Brexit governance
of Europe, little consideration will be given to Ireland’s needs and its
capabilities. How could they be? On all issues that matter, the centre
will advance its own agenda.
Amnesia can be a terrible thing. It is only prudent to remember that
in the bailout negotiations the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the
ground from underneath Ireland when we were at our most vulnerable. Ajai
Chopra, then IMF mission chief, recalls it was the International
Monetary Fund – not Europe – that advocated against the harshness of the
adjustment which the ECB attempted to impose and, also, ECB pressure to
impose on Ireland losses that should have been borne by the bondholders
of delinquent banks. The threats of what would happen if Ireland did
not come to heel came from Europe.
Old battles should not be refought – we move on. But we should learn.
Facing into a post-Brexit scenario it’s clear that we cannot look to
Europe to advocate Ireland’s national interests.
Irexit would restore a measure of control over the development of our resources and the autonomy to develop them
All of the economic modelling in the world will not resolve what is
an essentially political question. Are Ireland’s national interests best
served by being irrevocably integrated into this kind of Europe – one
which would fossilise the Border across the island, put at risk our
future relationship and multiple linages with our nearest neighbour
including an EU-imposed “hard Brexit”.
Alternatively, would the national interest be better served by a “managed Irexit”, alongside Brexit?
Suffocating oversight
Irexit would restore a measure of control over the development of our resources and the autonomy to develop them, free from the suffocating oversight exercised from the centre. It would provide greater policy flexibility in relation to the labour market which took the “hit”, in the form of massive emigration, during the EU’s “austerity regime”. It would mitigate Ireland’s vulnerability to EU pressures on its “business model” which, as Wolfgang Munchau writing in the Financial Times, has pointed out is no longer “fit for purpose”.
Membership of the Single Market and Customs Union benefit Ireland –
just as they do other countries including Germany which runs a
troublingly massive current account surplus. Ireland is also a net
contributor to the EU budget. The exploitation of our maritime resources
amounts to a significant “contribution” to other EU members.
“Europe” would, of course, be viscerally opposed to Irexit alongside
Brexit. We would probably experience the same opprobrium and
determination to “make us pay” as the UK has – including a campaign (all
too familiar) to “think again”. Foolish. The EU itself has every reason
to facilitate a constructive separation. Our politics should be talking
Irexit. Priority.
A dependent relationship, held together by pressures and threats, is
not healthy for a couple – or for a political union. A friendship,
characterised by mutual respect and an acknowledgement of the interests
of each of the parties, and their shared interests, is infinitely to be
preferred.
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