An expert has warned the risk of a full-scale war is increasing which an Aussie general says would be “disastrous”.
A Taiwanese soldier on April 9, 2020. Picture: Sam Yeh / AFP.Source:AFP
Beijing has declared it prefers the idea of war over allowing closer Taiwan-US ties.
A strike force of 25 Chinese fighters, bombers and surveillance aircraft threatened Taiwan’s borders on Monday as a high-level delegation of US officials visited the island.
Beijing’s reaction was predictably bellicose.
Its Taiwan Affairs Office announced the combat aircraft sortie was to tell Taipei that any further attempt to strengthen its relationship with Washington “would fail”.
“The signal given by the military drills is that we are determined to stop Taiwan independence, and stop Taiwan from working with the US. We are doing it with action,” spokesman Ma Xiaoguang declared. “We do not promise to abandon the use of force, and retain the option of taking all necessary measures.”
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The Chinese Communist Party-controlled Global Times stated the military posturing “could be a rehearsal of a reunification-by-force operation”.
China’s first aircraft carrier Liaoning and its escort circled Taiwan simultaneously as the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its battle group entered the South China Sea. As the two fleets converged, 25 Chinese aircraft – including 14 J-16 strike fighters and four H-6K strategic bombers – pushed their way into airspace over Taiwan’s nearby Pratas Island.
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“The exercise conducted by the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) served as a warning to Taiwan secessionists and the US after the two had made a series of provocative moves,” the Global Times reads.
It added “the PLA is taking pragmatic steps to make sure it can effectively reunify the island of Taiwan if it comes to that”.
Battlelines drawn
On Thursday, Australian chief of defence General Angus Campbell warned a conflict over Taiwan would be “disastrous” for the region.
“Australia is very clear that the future of China and Taiwan needs to be a future that is resolved peacefully,” he told a virtual gathering. “There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but it’s a hard path and it needs to be worked.”
It’s a scenario fraught with risk, leading Communist Party media commentator Hu Xijin admits. “As the situation in the Straits has deteriorated, the risk of a full-scale war in the Straits due to accidental minor incidents is increasing”.
But he also declared: “The PLA is prepared to send warplanes to fly across the island of Taiwan to declare sovereignty in case of further hostile behaviour by DPP authorities. It is also prepared to punish those ‘Taiwan secessionists’ fundamentally if the island’s troops open fire first.”
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And Beijing appears determined to ramp up the pressure.
“The external forces using Taiwan to control China and those independence camps using force to seek independence are doomed to fail in the face of the 1.4 billion Chinese people’s strong determination,” Ma said.
The Global Times backed this up by quoting Communist Party officials saying the military activity was set to increase.
“Monday’s exercise was characterised by a large number of aircraft, and as the PLA deepens its regular, combat-scenario drills near the island of Taiwan, the scale could continue to expand in the future,” military analyst Fu Qianshao is quoted as saying. “As this is normal, related parties should get used to it if they insist on provoking (us)”.
Fighting words
“The United States has hyped up the so-called ‘China military threat; and kept sending wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ forces, which speaks volumes about its sinister intentions,” said Ma.
But, at the same time, the Communist Party’s Global Times hyped its combat capabilities.
“The exercise could be a rehearsal of its combat plan over the Taiwan island, and it could feature air superiority seizure, and attack on land and maritime targets, including warships of interfering foreign countries,” military commentator Song Zhongping said. “PLA’s Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft target foreign submarines, the KJ-500 commands the battlefield, the H-6Ks attack maritime and land targets, the J-10s seize air superiority, while the J-16s plays a multirole of both aerial combat and attack.”
The aircraft carrier Liaoning (Hull 16). Picture: PLASource:Supplied
The PLA’s deployment of its most modern weaponry coincided with the passage of the USS Roosevelt and the arrival of the assault ship USS Makin Island for the annual Balikatan military exercises with Hanoi.
The deployment of the Liaoning and the air combat force “demonstrated that the PLA is capable of cutting off foreign interventions in the Taiwan region if the situation arises, as it has a powerful aerial combat system to drive away foreign maritime forces, including aircraft carrier strike groups,” the Global Times quoted an anonymous source as saying.
Commentator Hu declared “the US military’s arrogance … has long been shattered in the coastal waters of China. The US military cannot do whatever it wants in China’s surrounding waters where the PLA is capable of substantially subduing US impetuousness”.
Building fait accompli
Ma, speaking on behalf of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, repeated that the US should respect Beijing’s “one-China” principle and leave it to conduct Taiwan’s business.
“The current complex and severe situation across the Taiwan Strait is mainly because the Democratic Progressive Party is colluding with separatist and external forces to seek independence provocations,” he said. “We are aimed at the interference of external forces and the very small number of separatists and their separatist activities. We are definitely not aimed at compatriots in Taiwan”.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen greets former US Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg at a meeting at the presidential office in Taipei on April 15, 2021. Picture: ANN WANG / POOL / AFP.Source:AFP
Taiwan, however, disagrees.
President Tsai Ing-wen told visiting former senior US officials that Beijing’s Chinese military’s activities threaten regional peace and stability.
The island has not been part of China since it was ceded to the Japanese in 1895. The Republic of China government fled there after the 1949 revolution. It refused to surrender to the Communist Party on the mainland.
But Communist Beijing is now determined to subvert Taiwan’s democratically elected government.
“Some DPP politicians, who are hugely over-estimating their strength, have been seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ through relying on foreign support,” Ma said, adding that “these individuals are certain to face the consequences of their actions in due course”.