Taiwan has called out China for making a promise and then unleashing a co-ordinated and comprehensive attack earlier this week.
China's President Xi Jinping.
Twenty-eight combat aircraft probed Taiwan’s defences earlier this week.
It was the most powerful force to do so yet. Is this Chairman Xi Jinping’s new “trustworthy, loveable and humble” China?
The June 15 foray into airspace claimed by Taiwan represents a significant step-up in firepower.
It comprised the most modern of China’s combat aircraft. It represented a complete “strike package” containing command, surveillance, strategic strike and long-range fighter aircraft.
“Didn’t Chairman Xi order you to make China trustworthy, loveable and respectable?” a tweet from Taipei’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked. “Didn’t he also order you to chain the wolves and be modest and humble? Time for a reality check. Threatening Taiwan militarily and diplomatically violates the great man’s orders!”
Also notable was the flight’s timing.
A US battle group centred on the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was passing by on its way to cover the US retreat from Afghanistan.
And, just two days earlier, the Group of Seven leaders issued a joint statement criticising Beijing for undermining peace and stability in the region.
“China’s internal affairs must not be interfered in, China’s reputation must not be slandered, and China’s interests must not be violated,” its diplomatic officials declared.
Beijing asserts Taiwan is an “internal” matter. This is despite the UN-mandated island never capitulating to the Chinese Communist Party during the 1949 revolution.
Beijing demands “reunification”.
Taipei is unwilling to be “assimilated”.
Chairman Xi also insists the entire South China Sea is part of mainland China’s sovereign heritage. Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and Indonesia, however, disagree.
But that didn’t stop China from sending 16 combat transport aircraft into Malaysia’s UN-defined waters earlier this month.
“Xi may want to revert from ‘Wolf Warrior’ to ‘Winnie the Pooh’ diplomacy in terms of tone, but that is not likely to change how China defines its core national interests,” Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) national executive director Dr Bryce Wakefield told News Corp.
Strike force
The air operation was extensive, co-ordinated and comprehensive. At its core were four H-6 bombers capable of carrying ballistic and cruise missiles. These can be armed with either nuclear or conventional warheads.
In their wake flew Y-8 anti-submarine and electronic warfare aircraft capable of generating immense “noise” to blind opposing sensors. And around them all was a large force of J-16 long-range strike fighters.
Watching closely over this mass of warplanes was two KJ-500 early warning and command aircraft, with their own protective detachment of J-11 interceptors and J-16 fighters nearby.
Altogether this force numbered 28.
It was just three more than the previous largest intimidation effort on April 12.
But it represented a tailored package capable of taking on anything it encountered.
“Deriving intentions from Chinese action is always difficult because of the lack of transparency around its military planning,” Dr Wakefield says.
It may have been a response to the USS Ronald Reagan. It may have been another example of “strategic intimidation”.
“The incursions may also have been a response to the G7 statement on Taiwan,” Dr Wakefield adds. “While there is general agreement in the G7 that China’s behaviour is problematic, the leaders were split on the degree to which they should take a hard line on China. Beijing may be hoping that such assertive actions will make world leaders think twice about challenging its authority.”
Family photo at the start of the G7 summit in Carbis Bay, Cornwall on June 11, 2021.
Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office declared the operation was a response to “acts of collusion” between Taiwan and “foreign forces”.
Taiwan media reports Chinese pilots hit the airwaves to taunt “this is our territory”, “get used to this”, and “This is the high seas, OK? Read some books”. The aircraft passed near Taiwan’s remote Pratas Atoll and swept up the home island’s east coast.
Taipei scrambled fighter jets and activated air-defence radars in response. It also reportedly issued some 15 flight safety warnings, declaring, “if anything happens, you are responsible!”
The US Navy said the USS Ronald Reagan reported no “interactions” with Chinese aircraft that day. In February, a group of Chinese H-6 bombers reportedly carried out a “mock attack” against the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.
A formation of J-15 “Flying Shark” fighters fly over the aircraft carrier Liaoning during a fleet review attended by Chairman Xi Jinping in 2018. (mod.gov.cn/PLA)
D4NHD2 US Navy Nimitz-class nuclear aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan during RIMPAC exercises July 24, 2010.
Getting ‘real’
Chinese military activity around Taiwan is at its highest point since the 1995 Taiwan Strait crisis. This was sparked by Beijing conducting invasion war-games while firing live missiles off the Taiwan coast.
RAND Corporation analyst Derek Grossman says such military provocations “helps the PLA air force improve operational capabilities in line with the leadership directive to train under realistic conditions”.
“The bottom line is this latest operation, to me, represents the next logical step toward readying the PLA for actual combat,” he told the South China Morning Post.
But Dr Wakefield argues, “there is a difference between the messaging and the reality”.
“A planned military takeover of the island is still unlikely in the near to medium term, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to the United States and, importantly, its key allies such as Japan. China also has other means of punishing or pressuring Taiwan, notably through methods of attrition. So the increase in flights is probably more about posturing than actual preparedness to go to war.”
Singapore-based international affairs experts Dr Adrian Ang U-Jin and Dr Olli Pekka Suorsa argue there is much more at play here than anti-Taiwan “sabre rattling”.
“We argue that Chinese air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have had the US in their crosshairs more often than Taipei,” they write.
They signal Beijing’s “displeasure” at Washington’s improving diplomatic ties with Taipei. It represents heightened surveillance of the strategic Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines. It’s a counter to US displays of strength. And it attempts to set a “new normal” for expanding People’s Liberation Army activities.
“These high-profile, large-scale incursions are rare occurrences,” Drs U-Jin and Suorsa point out. “Ninety per cent of incursions involve no more than four sorties (aircraft), 3.5 per cent involve five to nine sorties, and fewer than 3 per cent involve 10-14 aircraft.”
But what is also evident in the data, they say, is the ongoing increase in quantity and intensity of activity. And that activity is usually in direct response to US acts – such as diplomatic visits to Taipei.
Messaging missions
Deciphering Beijing’s belligerence is keeping a host of international affairs experts up at night.
Its mixed messages don’t make matters any easier.
“Any changes in Chinese diplomacy as a result of Xi’s speech will be in tone – not in substance,” Dr Wakefield says. “Beijing understands that there are a host of issues where it needs to co-operate with other powers, and its recent wolf warrior diplomacy is not conducive to that. Beijing also realises that the tone is set from the top.”
While Chairman Xi may have approved the tone in the past, diplomatic tirades were less likely to be co-ordinated. Instead, they were “a response by individual diplomats playing to what they think Beijing wants”.
“It’s clear that the regime is coming to realise that the wild excesses of blunt Chinese diplomats have damaged China’s status in the international community,” Dr Wakefield says.
But Beijing will never be backward about coming forward about its interests.
“We will resolutely defend our national sovereignty, security, and development interests, and resolutely fight back against all kinds of injustices and infringements imposed on China,” Beijing’s London embassy retorted after the G7 communique.
It’s a stance that leaves little room for compromise.
Especially with equally resolute words from the opposition.
US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
China’s “increasing military activities conducted in the vicinity of Taiwan are destabilising and increase the risk of miscalculation,” a Pentagon spokesman said. “Our commitment to Taiwan is rock-solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region. In response to the growing PRC threat, we will continue deepening our unofficial security relationship to ensure Taiwan has sufficient capabilities to defend itself.”
It’s a scenario that will continue to play out in the air and waters of Southeast Asia.
“China will continue to keep pushing the boundaries in the South China Sea, and while the United States and others will make statements about its behaviour, ultimately, its behaviour is likely to be tolerated,” Dr Wakefield says.
But, he says, the main concern is increased air activity in the South China Sea.
“Given the dynamics of maritime operations, there is usually more time to assess a military accident or provocation, meaning that rapid escalation is less likely, and cooler heads can prevail. With Beijing’s increased use of flights for posturing, there is greater risk that an accident or provocation will spiral out of control.”